YEREVAN, February 2026 - Within Amundi’s annual Global Investment Outlook, a high-level roundtable discussion dedicated to the intersection of geopolitics and macroeconomics, was the centerpiece of the forum.

Under the theme "Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: Transition, not Downturn”, Jean Mazedjian, CEO of Amundi-Acba, Vincent Mortier, Amundi Group Chief Investment Officer, and Martin Galstyan, Governor of the Central Bank of Armenia (CBA), discussed the emerging global economic agenda.

The discussion opened with a profound conceptual thesis: the global economy is shifting from the simplified models of "mechanical physics" toward the complexity of "quantum physics." 2026 is characterized as a period of transformation, in which AI-driven policies, along with new defense and industrial strategies, are forcing investors to navigate by the laws of probability rather than concrete certainty. 

Geopolitics remains in a phase of "controlled disorder," where the probability of accidental errors is exceptionally high.

In response to Jean Mazejian’s question, what will have the greatest impact on asset-allocation decisions of large institutional investors in terms of persistent inflation, geopolitical fragmentation, or economic growth, Amundi Group CIO highlights two key factors.

Vincent Mortier emphasized that the primary driver for investors today is domestic politics. "Decisions such as the election of a new Prime Minister in Japan or budgetary shifts in the UK now make a greater influence on markets than in the past," the Amundi Group CIO explained. “Second, the key factor for markets is the mix between growth and inflation. Ultimately, any investor's goal, especially over the long term, is to preserve purchasing power that exceeds inflation”.

CBA Governor Martin Galstyan mentioned, "I agree that, in essence, all politics are local. But, if the country that is implementing internal politics is the dominant one, then local politics becomes geopolitics anyway." Governor Galstyan added that while he agrees with the term "transition" regarding economic shifts, in the geopolitical arena, we are witnessing a "rupture" between the US and its allies.

Addressing the strong political pressure on central banks to cut rates, such as the case of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Governor of the CBA remains convinced that independence must be preserved, a risk‑management approach should be applied, decisions should be communicated transparently, and monetary and countercyclical buffers should be built. According to Martin Galstyan: "The risk‑management approach to monetary policy, which is based on multi‑scenario analysis, is more credible," meaning policy should be guided by several plausible scenarios each with pre‑defined response measures.

Easing too early could undermine market and public confidence, especially when short‑term and long‑term market signals do not align.

Turning to Armenia, Vincent Mortier noted that stability and credibility remain the key factors for international investors. According to him, these elements form the foundation on which the country’s future progress should be built. Technology, energy, agriculture, and innovative venture projects were identified as the most favorable sectors for investment.

Highlighting Armenia's potential, Martin Galstyan emphasized: "We are working too hard to create this trademark – that’s I think Armenia is the place to be. We are small but sometimes small is still beautiful. So, in that sense I think we are the right spot on the map to be during these coming 5-10 years. How successful and efficient you are in using resources and building something more enduring and more credible. So, in that sense I think we need to learn a lot from the world, we need to be able to attract FDI, we need to attract more multinationals coming to Armenia, sharing their knowledge and expertise and that is the way forward which has proven to be right for many countries around the world. And I think we need to stand on that path as well".

The conference concluded with a dynamic Q&A session addressed trends in the gold market and regional developments, particularly events unfolding in Iran, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

When asked whether Amundi is prepared to take the risk and invest in Armenia, Vincent Mortier gave a clear and positive response: "Of course. We took the first step in Armenia 12 years ago by founding Amundi-Acba".

Access the full Global Investment Outlook 2026 here